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我是老吴
2018-10-31 14:05

你准备好毛衣战了吗?

2018,关于贸易战的讨论从未停止过。

老华说:

ee94442c2615cb4810e2cbdce143472f.jpg

fc536b7731b58b44ff69a97afdfcc018.jpg

冰大大讲到:977ef9b2b3335b49b0539a4f1b86c9f0.jpg

d1dc196b62dd794d93957c84cda0f593.jpg

暗夜老师曰:

53845e7cd10c3a04570defbeb8f7eb0e.jpg

晟哥云:

7b4ef147a8c4579b5630dfdbcac4e571.jpg

热心的圈友Bryan以父之名给出了13个应对建议:

cb03368c029c2dc9e7ecccae151830ce.jpg

LED产品80%都在清单上,所以老吴我和老美客户探讨探讨:

(一个当地批发商)

Hi David,

I am sure that you are receiving many orders to be shipped before the end of November to arrive the USA prior to January to avoid the 25% tariffs going into effect.

Can you share your thoughts of what the China government may do to offset these tariffs by way of rebates or currency devaluations? My concern is that we continue to place larger orders and find that costs have been reduced.

I ask these questions so we may work more closely together.

Best Regards,

Joe

…………………………………………………

Hello Joe,

 You are correct, we are receiving many orders to be shipped before the end of November to avoid the 25% tariff.

 I actually am conducting a survey of the coming tariff and try to piece together customer feedbacks and solutions. Please see below:

 1, 'Trade war' is unavoidable in 2018 and in the coming 2-3 years, most likely.

2, Many companies are looking for alternative countries to avoid 25%, but it’s a very hard thing since other countries don’t have comprehensive supply chains as China.

3, Many more are looking at Chinese government weakening RMB currency further (maybe 7.0-8.0) to offset the tax.

4, Some try ship containers to ‘transfer country’ from China and make the containers Made In 'transfer country', especially Asian nations. (feasible but fit for quite large imports, in our view)

5, Some reduce the invoice value to a certain percentage say 60-70% in an attempt to cut part of taxes. (Risk taker)

 Overall, I suggest we need to wait and see how things get going. And meanwhile, you may try to locate some suppliers outside China, but it’s not easy. 

…………………………………………………

Hi David,

 In addition to the factors you have outlined, we understand the Chinese gov may also increase the tax refund by 2%.

Best Regards,

Joe

…………………………………………………(一个题外话,David太通俗,我准备改英文名字了,欢迎米友们大胆给建议哈 :-D)

另外,和连锁超市买手聊了聊:

cbfa20e6608390f1ade1e1e15b2e3e7f.jpg

总结下,

1,贸易站不可避免,这是老二挑战老大的必然过程。特靠谱上不上台都一样

2,两强相争必有一伤,我们对中国很有信心!如冰哥所说,‘目前全世界没有任何一个国家或者一群国家,可以承接中国制造业的产能。’

3,战斗已经打响。ZF正在通过提高退税率1%、货币贬值、降税刺激消费、推进一带一路等方式应对战斗。

4,企业和外贸猿们如何应对呢?

关税分摊

价格调整

第三方转运

付款方式调整

全球市场开拓

产品创新

推进本地运营

SKD或CKD出口

打时间差多备货

做低发票

假铭牌

.

.

.

危机,危险和机会同在,一定是这样的。勤劳的外贸同胞们必须通过高效正确的方法化解危险,把握机会,谋定而后动,不动则已,动必胜!祝你我他她和它好运,祝中国昌盛。国运,我赌定了。

对了,如何快速查询你的产品是否被贸易战了?

第一,登录美国海关的HTS查询界面,http://hts.usitc.gov

第二,输入你产品的HTS编码。一般输入前六位,然后找对应的描述和HTS code

第三,查询对应的进口税率

关于贸易战各种详细的报道和来龙去脉,我推荐维基百科,下面是英文链接:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war

关于毛衣战好像还没有一篇火文,请允许我厚脸皮一把,华哥,可以加精/火吗?哈哈哈 @mrhua @ChenL

f887cf0bd0252078ebbec4295faa7fcd.jpg

最后来一张神图!

(小编说有点敏感,怕影响App审核,已删除)

- 老吴草于深圳

18年10月31

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我是老吴 谁在评论里提醒下这位作者,懒得连名片都没填写。
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我是老吴

一美国公司小采购。略懂外贸,股市被套,房子摇号。。。让咱一起上道

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